The hasty wisdom of the mob: How market sentiment predicts stock market behavior

作者:

Highlights:

• We explore predicting financial markets with social media sentiment.

• We test independent bullishness and bearishness metrics, granular to 2 minute intervals.

• Sentiment metrics selectively predict market behavior.

• Price volatility and trading volume are more predictable than price direction.

• Causal effects are evident within time intervals of minutes.

摘要

•We explore predicting financial markets with social media sentiment.•We test independent bullishness and bearishness metrics, granular to 2 minute intervals.•Sentiment metrics selectively predict market behavior.•Price volatility and trading volume are more predictable than price direction.•Causal effects are evident within time intervals of minutes.

论文关键词:Sentiment,Stock market,Social media,Forecasting,Micro-blogging,Analytics

论文评审过程:Received 24 August 2016, Revised 10 October 2016, Accepted 24 January 2017, Available online 3 February 2017, Version of Record 13 February 2017.

论文官网地址:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2017.01.029