A knowledge-based expert system to assess power plant project cost overrun risks

作者：

Highlights：

• A fuzz-canonical model is proposed for risk assessment of power plant projects.

• The complexity in the elicitation of probability parameters of fuzzy-BBN models is reduced.

• The causal networks for cost overrun risks of power plant projects are developed.

• The critical cost overrun risks in thermal power plant projects are assessed.

摘要

•A fuzz-canonical model is proposed for risk assessment of power plant projects.•The complexity in the elicitation of probability parameters of fuzzy-BBN models is reduced.•The causal networks for cost overrun risks of power plant projects are developed.•The critical cost overrun risks in thermal power plant projects are assessed.

论文关键词：Cost overruns,Risk assessment,Power plant projects,Fuzzy logic,Canonical model

论文评审过程：Received 27 August 2018, Revised 14 June 2019, Accepted 15 June 2019, Available online 15 June 2019, Version of Record 21 June 2019.

论文官网地址：https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2019.06.030