Forecasting short term regional gas demand using an expert system

摘要

The ability to provide an accurate prediction of future events plays an important role in most decision making processes. The effectiveness of any decision depends upon the nature of the sequence of events that follow the decision,. In most cases, the risks involved in decision making are reduced by forecasting future events and by predicting their uncontrollable aspects. Unfortunately, most decision making processes involve the consideration of several operational factors which by themselves may require forecasting. As a result, the whole process can be extremely complex, and therefore it is important not only to forecast accurately but also to use an appropriate forecasting model. Failure to use such a model can lead to substantial errors or risks and cause unnecessary financial setbacks. The work presented in this paper investigates the impact of Expert Systems on the decision making process. In particular, this paper presents the work carried out during a case study involving the forecasting of gas demands by a regional gas company. The software development of an appropriate forecasting tool based on an Expert System shell is presented and evaluated. The evaluation process described here involved running the software at the regional control centre of the gas company and comparing its results with those obtained from traditional techniques. It is shown that the use of forecasting tools based on Expert Systems can provide a substantial improvement over traditional techniques.