Numerical simulation of the novel coronavirus spreading

作者：

Highlights：

• Cellular Automata include density population of Poland, France, Spain in SEIR model.

• We analyze influence of parametric adjustment for modeling pandemic prevention.

• The earlier reduction of personal contacts the faster reduction of infections number.

• Age dependent mortality rates are explored to reflect the real features of COVID-19.

• Our approach allows for modeling of COVID-19 presumable dynamics.

摘要

•Cellular Automata include density population of Poland, France, Spain in SEIR model.•We analyze influence of parametric adjustment for modeling pandemic prevention.•The earlier reduction of personal contacts the faster reduction of infections number.•Age dependent mortality rates are explored to reflect the real features of COVID-19.•Our approach allows for modeling of COVID-19 presumable dynamics.

论文关键词：Novel coronavirus,Cellular automata,SEIR model,Epidemic spread model,Mathematical model

论文评审过程：Received 24 April 2020, Revised 3 August 2020, Accepted 8 October 2020, Available online 15 October 2020, Version of Record 16 October 2020.

论文官网地址：https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2020.114109