A classification of countries and regions by degree of the spread of coronavirus based on statistical criteria

作者：

Highlights：

• Four phases can be distinguished in the spread of the virus.

• The relative daily change indicator best visualizes the changes in the epidemic.

• We present the changes in the epidemic phases for a number of selected countries.

• The re-outbreak phase is probably the expected second wave of the epidemic.

• An updated, well-commented Matlab file is available in the open GitHub repository.

摘要

•Four phases can be distinguished in the spread of the virus.•The relative daily change indicator best visualizes the changes in the epidemic.•We present the changes in the epidemic phases for a number of selected countries.•The re-outbreak phase is probably the expected second wave of the epidemic.•An updated, well-commented Matlab file is available in the open GitHub repository.

论文关键词：Coronavirus spread modeling,Statistical models,Modeling epidemics,Simulation,COVID-19

论文评审过程：Received 30 April 2020, Revised 23 January 2021, Accepted 23 January 2021, Available online 1 February 2021, Version of Record 10 February 2021.

论文官网地址：https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2021.114654