Ensemble forecasting system for short-term wind speed forecasting based on optimal sub-model selection and multi-objective version of mayfly optimization algorithm
作者：
Highlights：
• An ensemble forecasting system is developed for short-term wind speed.
• A comprehensive indicator is proposed to determine the best sub-models adaptively.
• Point and interval prediction are conducted for more intelligent grid management.
• Optimal distribution is used effectively to measure the uncertainty.
• Multi-objective version of Mayfly Algorithm is proposed for ensemble forecasting.
摘要
•An ensemble forecasting system is developed for short-term wind speed.•A comprehensive indicator is proposed to determine the best sub-models adaptively.•Point and interval prediction are conducted for more intelligent grid management.•Optimal distribution is used effectively to measure the uncertainty.•Multi-objective version of Mayfly Algorithm is proposed for ensemble forecasting.
论文关键词：Ensemble model,Multi-objective version of Mayfly algorithm,Short-term wind speed forecasting,Sub-model selection
论文评审过程：Received 8 November 2020, Revised 21 February 2021, Accepted 27 March 2021, Available online 1 April 2021, Version of Record 17 April 2021.
论文官网地址：https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2021.114974
