A machine learning model for lapse prediction in life insurance contracts

作者：

Highlights：

• We use Random Forest to predict the lapse decision of life insurance contracts.

• We use global and local interpretability tools to investigate how the model works.

• Linear models are not adequate to capture the heterogeneity of decisions.

• Non-economic features play a significant effect in determining the lapse decision.

摘要

•We use Random Forest to predict the lapse decision of life insurance contracts.•We use global and local interpretability tools to investigate how the model works.•Linear models are not adequate to capture the heterogeneity of decisions.•Non-economic features play a significant effect in determining the lapse decision.

论文关键词：Machine learning,Life insurance,Interpretability,Lapse

论文评审过程：Received 11 April 2021, Revised 10 November 2021, Accepted 18 November 2021, Available online 5 December 2021, Version of Record 10 December 2021.

论文官网地址：https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2021.116261