Predicting and managing megaproject gray rhino risks with IF-ANP and DEMATEL based on panel data
作者：
Highlights：
• Ignoring interactions among risks leads to recurring common risks in megaprojects.
• The nonlinearity of complex systems leads to expert judgment much subjectivity.
• IF-ANP method can effectively reduce the subjectivity when experts assess risks.
• Direct risks are manifestations of deeper risks which are keys to project failure.
• Using panel data can effectively improve the accuracy of expert evaluation methods.
摘要
•Ignoring interactions among risks leads to recurring common risks in megaprojects.•The nonlinearity of complex systems leads to expert judgment much subjectivity.•IF-ANP method can effectively reduce the subjectivity when experts assess risks.•Direct risks are manifestations of deeper risks which are keys to project failure.•Using panel data can effectively improve the accuracy of expert evaluation methods.
论文关键词：IF-ANP,DEMATEL,Gray rhino risk,Megaproject,Panel data analysis
论文评审过程：Received 7 April 2020, Revised 26 June 2022, Accepted 18 July 2022, Available online 22 July 2022, Version of Record 1 August 2022.
论文官网地址：https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2022.118243
