A framework for developing an expert analysis and forecasting system for construction projects

摘要

Analyzing construction project performance is a diagnostic process, and forecasting project performance is a cognitive process. Both processes require the exercise of expert judgment and intelligence. Artificial Intelligence programming techniques such as expert systems and neural networks provide assistance to construction project managing personnel in capturing construction knowledge needed for analyzing and forecasting construction projects. This paper describes the development of a framework titled PAFEX (Performance Analysis and Forecasting Expert System). The framework has two main modules. The first module is a diagnostic expert system that has the objective of analyzing construction project performance and adopts causal diagnostic reasoning as a strategy and object-oriented programming technology as a knowledge representation scheme. The second module has the objective of forecasting the construction performance and applies artificial neural networks as a modeling strategy. The advantages and limitations of these two modeling processes are discussed. Issues regarding integrating the proposed approach with existing project management systems are also discussed.