A Short-term Traffic Flow Forecasting Method Based on the Hybrid PSO-SVR

摘要

Accurate short-term flow forecasting is important for the real-time traffic control, but due to its complex nonlinear data pattern, getting a high precision is difficult. The support vector regression model (SVR) has been widely used to solve nonlinear regression and time series predicting problems. To get a higher precision with less learning time, this paper presents a Hybrid PSO-SVR forecasting method, which uses particle swarm optimization (PSO) to search optimal SVR parameters. In order to find a PSO that is more proper for SVR parameters searching, this paper proposes three kinds of strategies to handle the particles flying out of the searching space Through the comparison of three strategies, we find one of the strategies can make PSO get the optimal parameters more quickly. The PSO using this strategy is called fast PSO. Furthermore, aiming at the problem about the decrease of prediction accuracy caused by the noises in the original data, this paper proposes a hybrid PSO-SVR method with historical momentum based on the similarity of historical short-term flow data. The results of extensive comparison experiments indicate that the proposed model can get more accurate forecasting results than other state-of-the-art algorithms, and when the data contain noises, the method with historical momentum still gets accurate forecasting results.