Flight Delay Prediction Using Deep Convolutional Neural Network Based on Fusion of Meteorological Data

摘要

Nowadays, the civil aviation industry has a high precision demand of flight delay prediction. To make full use of the characteristics of flight data and meteorological data, two flight delay prediction models using deep convolution neural network based on fusion of meteorological data are proposed in this paper. One is DCNN (Dual-channel Convolutional Neural Network), which refers to the ResNet network structure. The other is SE-DenseNet (Squeeze and Excitation-Densely Connected Convolutional Network), combining the advantages of DenseNet and SENet. Firstly, flight data and meteorological data are fused in the model. Then, both DCNN and SE-DenseNet models are used to extract feature automatically based on the fused flight data set. Finally, the softmax classifier is adopted to predict the flight delay level. For proposed DCNN model, both straight channel and convolution channel are designed to guarantee the lossless transmission of the feature matrix and enhance the patency of the deep network. For proposed SE-DenseNet model, a SE module is added after the convolution layer of each DenseNet block, which can not only enhance the transmission of deep information but also achieve feature recalibration in the feature extraction process. The research results indicate that after considering characteristics of meteorological information, the accuracy of the model can be improved 1% compared with only considering the flight information. The two deep convolutional neural networks proposed in this paper, DCNN and SE-DenseNet, can both effectively improve the prediction accuracies, reaching to 92.1% and 93.19%, respectively.