Estimating the diffusion models of crisis information in micro blog

摘要

The study tries to construct the diffusion models of crisis information in micro blog. We propose three information release patterns in micro blog according to the duration of crisis information released, namely concentrated release, continuous release, and pulse release. Based on Logistic function, three respective diffusion models are constructed. We choose three crisis events to test the diffusion models using the variables of the number of micro blogs with the crisis information (NMCI) and the increment of NMCI. The estimate results show that the diffusion of crisis information in micro blogs can be described by Logistic function, and the growth curve of NMCI is S-shaped.