Hawkes process-based technology impact analysis
作者：
Highlights：
• Proposing a Hawkes process-based patent citation analysis for technology forecasting.
• Assessing the future impact and uncertainty of a technology by employing future citation counts of the relevant patents.
• Modelling the idiosyncratic and dynamic behaviours of a technology’s evolution and obsolescence.
• Outperforming deterministic approaches in terms of accuracy and practicality.
摘要
•Proposing a Hawkes process-based patent citation analysis for technology forecasting.•Assessing the future impact and uncertainty of a technology by employing future citation counts of the relevant patents.•Modelling the idiosyncratic and dynamic behaviours of a technology’s evolution and obsolescence.•Outperforming deterministic approaches in terms of accuracy and practicality.
论文关键词：Technology impact analysis,Hawkes processes,Future technological impact and uncertainty,Technology evolution and obsolescence,Patent citation forecasting
论文评审过程：Received 7 November 2016, Revised 4 March 2017, Accepted 17 March 2017, Available online 31 March 2017, Version of Record 31 March 2017.
论文官网地址：https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joi.2017.03.007
