Predicting research excellence at the individual level: The importance of publication rate, top journal publications, and top 10% publications in the case of early career mathematicians

作者：

Highlights：

• Authors who publish allot in top journals, which implies a high publication count, have a higher probability of attaining excellence.

• Continuity was found between past and future production of excellent research.

• Top journal publications may be useful for identifying excellence in the early career.

摘要

•Authors who publish allot in top journals, which implies a high publication count, have a higher probability of attaining excellence.•Continuity was found between past and future production of excellent research.•Top journal publications may be useful for identifying excellence in the early career.

论文关键词：Excellence,Productivity,Early career,Dominance analysis,Mathematics,Highly cited,Bibliometric indicator,Journal prestige

论文评审过程：Received 9 May 2017, Revised 16 April 2018, Accepted 16 April 2018, Available online 16 May 2018, Version of Record 16 May 2018.

论文官网地址：https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joi.2018.04.002