Information and misinformation in bibliometric time-trend analysis
作者：
Highlights：
• There are multiple methods (diachronous, synchronous variants) for creating bibliometric time-series.
• One method implies rising impact for G7 nations while China declines in later years of any series but this is shown to be flawed.
• A final-year synchronous series suggests a lower G7 trajectory; a single-year diachronous series impact falls for Germany and rises for China.
• This has implications for research policy and for the interpretation of changes in the competitive research environment.
• The effect may extend to institutional as well as national comparisons and has further implications for analytical methodology.
摘要
•There are multiple methods (diachronous, synchronous variants) for creating bibliometric time-series.•One method implies rising impact for G7 nations while China declines in later years of any series but this is shown to be flawed.•A final-year synchronous series suggests a lower G7 trajectory; a single-year diachronous series impact falls for Germany and rises for China.•This has implications for research policy and for the interpretation of changes in the competitive research environment.•The effect may extend to institutional as well as national comparisons and has further implications for analytical methodology.
论文关键词：Time series,Citation analysis,Research policy,International comparisons,China
论文评审过程：Received 9 March 2018, Revised 23 August 2018, Accepted 23 August 2018, Available online 7 September 2018, Version of Record 7 September 2018.
论文官网地址：https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joi.2018.08.009
