Predicting the popularity of scientific publications by an age-based diffusion model

作者：

Highlights：

• This study focuses on the popularity prediction problem of scientific papers based on citation networks.

• The proposed AD model is a mimic of the attention diffusion process along the citation networks.

• The AD model can achieve better prediction accuracy than other benchmark methods.

• The AD model can identify the future highly cited papers from massive numbers of new papers.

摘要

•This study focuses on the popularity prediction problem of scientific papers based on citation networks.•The proposed AD model is a mimic of the attention diffusion process along the citation networks.•The AD model can achieve better prediction accuracy than other benchmark methods.•The AD model can identify the future highly cited papers from massive numbers of new papers.

论文关键词：Popularity prediction,Citation network,Diffusion process

论文评审过程：Received 20 July 2020, Revised 1 May 2021, Accepted 11 May 2021, Available online 4 June 2021, Version of Record 4 June 2021.

论文官网地址：https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joi.2021.101177