Nonlinear dynamics and the growth of literature

摘要

Progress over the last 25 years in physics has demonstrated that simple natural systems under certain conditions can exhibit very complicated behavior. Based on earlier studies of turbulence and fluid dynamics, chaotic behavior has been shown to exist in weather patterns, electric circuits, chemical reactions, physiological systems, and ecological systems. The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate that there is merit to asking and seriously examining whether information production and dissemination can be described by similar nonlinear dynamic mechanisms. First, with an example from the superconductivity literature, it is demonstrated that the argument of linear versus exponential growth in literature may be irrelevant in the short term. Second, the argument is advanced that if chaos can be found in naturally varying populations, and certain principles of population dynamics also apply to literature dynamics, then it may also be possible to find chaos in the growth of literature.