A bond rating expert system for industrial companies

摘要

This article presents an expert system designed to perform the task of bond rating for industrial companies. ArBor-I (articulate bond rater for industrial companies) has been developed using a production system in the environment of Common Lisp. In this article, the knowledge engineering processes involved in the development of ArBor-I are discussed. First, the nature of bond rating is explained from the viewpoint of professional bond raters. Experiential knowledge of bond raters rather than formal financial theories is captured and represented in the system. Second, knowledge acquisition sessions are briefly discussed. Protocol analysis is primarily used as a methodology of knowledge acquisition. Also, the manuals published by the bond rating companies were analyzed with the advise of expert bond raters. Third, a task analysis is conducted by identifying and conceptualizing computational generic tasks of bond rating. The task analysis subsequently specifies the types of knowledge to be captured and represented in ArBor-I. Fourth, a bond rating model is conceptualized by identifying the generic tasks and process structure. Finally, an explanation capacity of ArBor-I is discussed with demonstration of some example sessions. Computer implementation issues are also discussed followed by current limitations of the ArBor-I system.